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Security, Myanmar's Future, Avoiding Setbacks in Afghanistan

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July 2016 CPA Newsletter

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Security|Myanmar’s Future|Avoiding Setbacks in Afghanistan

SUPPORTERS REACT AS MYANMAR’S PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADER AUNG SAN SUU KYI GIVES A SPEECH AT A CAMPAIGN RALLY IN YANGON BEFORE THE NOVEMBER 2015 GENERAL ELECTIONS. (SOE ZEYA TUN/REUTERS)

SUPPORTERS REACT AS MYANMAR’S PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADER AUNG SAN SUU KYI GIVES A SPEECH AT A CAMPAIGN RALLY IN YANGON BEFORE THE NOVEMBER 2015 GENERAL ELECTIONS. (SOE ZEYA TUN/REUTERS)

Dear Colleague,

Before we get too far into the depths of summer I wanted to give a quick update on our recent activities at the Center for Preventive Action (CPA). Over the past few months, we published two Contingency Planning Memoranda (CPM), one Council Special Report (CSR), and one CPM update. We also held two regional workshops—one in Johannesburg, South Africa, and the other in Talloires, France—to discuss peace-building efforts in Africa and the emerging Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry in the Middle East. The newly redesigned Global Conflict Tracker has taken off, becoming one of the most-viewed parts of CFR’s website. It now tracks almost thirty ongoing conflicts around the world, and we continue to update it daily. I traveled to South Africa in March to attend an International Institutions and Global Governance (IIGG) workshop in Cape Town, to Taiwan in April to meet with top government officials including the new president, and to Germany in June to discuss countering violent extremism with top experts from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. In February, Senior Fellow Micah Zenko and I participated in Reddit “ask me anything” online question-and-answer sessions. To learn more about our latest activities and publications, we welcome you to read through our newsletter, explore our website, read our blog, like our Facebook page, and follow us on Twitter. As always, thank you for your continued support and feedback.

Have a great summer!

Paul B. Stares
General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention
Director of the Center for Preventive Action

 

REDESIGNED GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

 
 

 

The Global Conflict Tracker is an interactive guide that tracks ongoing conflicts around the world that are of concern to the United States. The interactive covers nearly thirty conflicts, from criminal violence in Mexico to civil war in Syria to conflict in the South China Sea. Explore the interactive

 

RECENT PUBLICATIONS

Strategic Reversal in Afghanistan
Seth G. Jones

Since 2001, the United States and its international partners have expended substantial resources to secure, stabilize, and rebuild Afghanistan. Recent developments, however, indicate that progress toward these strategic goals is slipping. Read our Contingency Planning Memorandum by Seth G. Jones, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, to learn how the United States can take steps to prevent the collapse of the Afghan government. Read the report »

 
Securing a Democratic Future for Myanmar
Priscilla A. Clapp

Our latest Council Special Report by Priscilla A. Clapp, senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace, discusses the principal challenges to a successful political transition in Myanmar and makes recommendations to improve human rights conditions for Rohingya Muslims and revise U.S. sanctions policy.  Read the report »

 
Renewed Confrontation in Georgia
David J. Kramer

U.S.-Russia relations are at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War, and renewed confrontation between Russia and Georgia would make matters considerably worse. David J. Kramer, senior director at the McCain Institute for International Leadership, analyzes the likelihood of conflict between the two countries in the next twelve to eighteen months.  Read the report »

 
Growing Stress on Jordan
Robert Satloff, David Schenker

The potential for systemic political change in Jordan, highlighted in the 2013 CPM “Political Instability In Jordan,” has increased as the war in Syria continues. Jordan has a long tradition of providing sanctuary for refugees, but the kingdom has reached its saturation point. Two scholars from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy—Robert Satloff, executive director, and David Schenker, director of the program on Arab politics—discuss the spillover effects from the Syrian civil war and the increasing threat to Jordan.  Read the report »

 

New Interactive Tool Tracks Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

New Interactive Tool Tracks Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Although political violence in sub-Saharan Africa appears to have declined from a recent peak in early 2015, extremist groups such as Boko Haram and al-Shabab, and even some national militaries continue to terrorize the region. CFR Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies John Campbell has launched the Sub-Saharan Security Tracker to monitor trends in political violence in the region. Campbell’s book, Morning in South Africa, was also published in May.

 

CPA IN THE NEWS

Do Not Believe the U.S. Government’s Official Numbers on Drone Strike Civilian Casualties
 

On July 1, the Obama administration released its count of drone strike deaths. Zenko discusses how these numbers compare to data collected by nongovernmental organizations and outlines the implications for government transparency. Read more »

 
The False Lure of Military Intervention in Syria
 

Zenko is quoted in an op-ed by the New York Times editorial board on the impact of a no-fly zone in Syria. Read more »

 
Unburying the Dead From the Pentagon’s Afghan Hospital Bombing
 

Zenko reviews the report released by the U.S. Department of Defense on the November 2015 bombing of a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan. Read more »

 
Drones Kill More Civilians Than Pilots Do
 

A common justification for the use of unmanned aircraft by the Obama administration is that they limit collateral damage. Micah Zenko and Amelia Mae Wolf argue that is not the case. Read more »

 
The Big Lie About the Libyan War
 

Zenko argues that, contrary to public statements, the intervention in Libya was all about regime change.  Read more »

 

ABOUT THE CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE ACTION

The Center for Preventive Action seeks to help prevent, defuse, or resolve deadly conflicts around the world and to expand the body of knowledge on conflict prevention.

 
Paul B. Stares
CPA Director, General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention

Micah Zenko
@MicahZenko
Senior Fellow

Helia Ighani
Assistant Director
Sarah Collman
Research Associate

James West
Research Associate

Jennifer Wilson
Research Associate
 
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