Following more than ten years of Samsung’s dominance in terms of volume, Apple is poised to regain its title as the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer. According to calculations by industry analysts at Counterpoint Research, the US tech giant is on track to displace its South Korean rival in 2025, driven largely by the robust performance of the recently launched iPhone 17 series. This would mark the first time since 2011 that Apple has secured the top position for annual shipments, signalling a significant shift in the global mobile market.
Surging Sales and Market Share Projections
The projections paint a stark contrast between the two market leaders. While the broader smartphone market is expected to grow by a modest 3.3 per cent, Apple’s shipments are forecast to rise by roughly 10 per cent in 2025. By comparison, Samsung, the long-standing market leader, is predicted to see a more conservative growth of 4.6 per cent. These figures suggest Apple will secure a global market share of 19.4 per cent, effectively ending Samsung’s reign at the top of the volume charts.
Investors have already responded to the shifting tides. Apple’s share price has demonstrated remarkable strength in recent months, reaching a new all-time high of $280.38 on Tuesday. Markets are clearly banking on the company’s ability to convert this sales momentum into sustained financial success, with revenue for the critical Christmas quarter expected to hover around the $140 billion mark.
The Post-Pandemic Upgrade Cycle
A key driver behind this resurgence is a wave of consumer upgrades. Experts suggest that a significant portion of the public who purchased handsets at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic are now trading them in for newer models. Counterpoint expert Yang Wang noted that the popularity of the iPhone 17 range, introduced in September, is central to this growth.
Furthermore, the secondary market is playing a pivotal role in expanding Apple’s ecosystem. Between 2023 and mid-2025, approximately 358 million used iPhones changed hands. Analysts believe this massive base of second-hand users represents a fertile ground for future upgrades to new devices, creating a pipeline of demand that could help Apple maintain its leadership position until at least 2029.
A Shift Towards Premium Devices
The dynamics of the mobile industry have changed significantly since Apple first defined the modern smartphone era with the original iPhone in 2007. For years, Samsung relied on a strategy of flooding the market with a vast array of devices across all price points, particularly utilising the Android operating system to capture budget-conscious consumers. While Apple frequently topped the charts during the lucrative festive quarter, Samsung consistently held the crown for annual volume.
However, a clear trend has emerged where consumers are increasingly willing to pay for premium, durable devices that they intend to keep for longer. This shift plays directly into Apple’s hands, given its reputation for brand loyalty and hardware longevity. Despite a history of fierce competition—including bitter legal battles over design patents where Apple accused Samsung of copying its technology—the US firm has gradually eroded Samsung’s volume advantage by dominating the high-end sector.
Future Hardware and Global Factors
External economic factors are also aligning in Apple’s favour. An easing of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, coupled with a weaker dollar, has helped bolster sales in the crucial Chinese market, where the new models are seeing double-digit growth.
Looking ahead, the company’s roadmap appears designed to consolidate this newfound lead. Industry insiders anticipate the launch of a foldable iPhone in 2026, alongside a more affordable entry in the main line-up, tentatively dubbed the ‘iPhone 17e’. A comprehensive design overhaul of the flagship range is also rumoured for 2027. With competitors like Xiaomi still trailing in third place and official sales figures no longer published by the manufacturers themselves, all independent indicators point to a prolonged period of Apple dominance at the summit of the smartphone world.